By Daniel Mason-D'Croz (IFPRI)
In ongoing work with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), IFPRI released a new publication in EuroChoices [1] on August 16th aimed at reaching European policy makers. This work built off of last year’
s collaboration with OECD, which culminated in an 2014 OECD report on Climate Change Adaptation [2]. The new publication in EuroChoices is coauthored by Ada Ignaciuk of the OECD, as well as Daniel Mason-D’Croz and Shahnila Islam of IFPRI. It extended the irrigation expansion and efficiency scenarios from the first study to non-OECD member countries, and focused the analysis of water scarcity and climate change on agriculture in Europe. This analysis highlighted the challenges confronting Southern Europe, which already experiences water stress and is threatened by increasing water shortages in alternative futures with climate change. The following figure taken from the article illustrates this water challenge, with Southern Europe and the Mediterranean Basin on the whole expected to see declining precipitation.
Changes in annual precipitation in Europe and Mediterranean in 2050 compared to 2005 (% change)
This study’s key findings include:
- Irrigation efficiency improvements in Southern Europe and the Mediterranean show promise in easing current and future water scarcity
- In area currently experiencing low or moderate water scarcity, improved irrigation efficiency can relieve future demand pressures and allow for greater conversion of rainfed production to more productive irrigated production
- Irrigation expansion without improved water-use can lead to declining yields, where new water demands exceed available water for irrigation
To learn more about this study you can read the whole article at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1746-692X.12088/full.
For more information about this collaborative work please read the CCAFS 2014 annual report highlighting the work. The full OECD report can also be access freely at: http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/agriculture-and-food/modelling-adaptation-to-climate-change-in-agriculture_5jxrclljnbxq-en.
For more information, please contact Daniel Mason-D'Croz (IFPRI).
References
[1] Ignaciuk, A., D. D'Croz, and S. Islam. (2015), “Better Drip than Flood: Reaping the Benefits of Efficient Irrigation”. EuroChoices, 14: 26–32. doi: 10.1111/1746-692X.12088
[2] Ignaciuk, A. and D. Mason-D'Croz (2014), "Modelling Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture", OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers, No. 70, OECD Publishing, Paris. DOI: 10.1787/5jxrclljnbxq-en
