The insurance group Lloyd’s recently commissioned the study “Food System Shock: The Insurance Impacts of Acute Disruption to Global Food Supply” to explore some of the potential risks of a series of extreme events on the global food system and the implications this might have on food security and the insurance industry. IFPRI’s IMPACT (International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade) team was invited to participate in a workshop hosted by Lloyd’s in February and to provide quantitative foresight analysis of potential consequences of extreme crop productivity shock events. These scenarios were designed to explore systematic weaknesses in the global food system and raise questions of what could happen if major breakdowns in the system were to occur due to extreme climatic events. For example, one of the scenarios explored the consequences of negative shocks on agriculture caused by a strong warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, as shown in the following figure.
Please see full post here.
