Improved modeling of rice under environmental stresses

By Tao Li & Samarendu Mohanty, IRRI

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Photo Credit: IRRI

The worldwide usage of and increasing citations for ORYZA2000 has established it as a robust and reliable ecophysiological model for predicting the growth and yield of rice in an irrigated lowland ecosystem. Because of its focus on irrigated lowlands, its computation ability is limited in the representation of the effects of the highly dynamic environments of upland, rainfed, and aerobic ecosystems on rice growth and yield. Additional modules and routines to quantify daily variations in soil temperature, carbon, nitrogen, and environmental stresses were then developed and integrated into ORYZA2000 to capture their effects on primary production, assimilate allocation, root growth, and water and nitrogen uptake.

The newest version has been renamed “ORYZA version 3 (v3)”. Case studies have shown that the root mean square errors (RMSE) between simulated and measured values for total biomass and yields ranged from 11.2% to 16.6% across experiments in non-drought and drought and/or nitrogen-deficient environments. ORYZA (v3) showed a significant reduction of the RMSE by at least 20%, thereby improving the model’s capability to represent values measured under extreme conditions. It has also been significantly improved in representing the dynamics of soil water and crop leaf nitrogen contents. With an enhanced capability to simulate rice growth and development and predict yield in non-stressed, water-stressed and nitrogen-stressed environments, ORYZA (v3) is a reliable successor of ORYZA2000.

Download the paper here

Fish to 2050 in the ASEAN region

By Chin Yee Chan, WorldFish

ASEAN

The fisheries and aquaculture sectors in the countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), provide income, employment opportunities, poverty alleviation, and improved food and nutrition security for the region. Extending the previous work from the Fish to 2030 report with the effort of updating parameters of the IMPACT fish model in consultation with regional experts and stakeholders, this WorldFish/IFPRI working paper highlights the business-as-usual projections of fish supply, net trade, prices, consumption, and nutrition intake from fish to 2050. Fish production in the ASEAN region will likely to grow faster than the regional population growth, benefitting the region both by improved food and nutrition security and economic opportunities.

Both aquaculture and capture fisheries production in the ASEAN will continue to grow. Capture fisheries continue to be the dominant fish supply by 2050, while aquaculture will supply more than half of fish for human consumption in coming decade. Regional net exports will continue to increase. Real prices of wild fish will grow slightly faster than farmed fish. Recognizing the complementary roles between capture fisheries and aquaculture sectors, policies need to focus not only on promoting aquaculture expansion, but also to strengthen regional fisheries governance and management to ensure sustainable growth of both sectors.

Download the paper here.

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Training workshop for the National Agricultural Investment Plans appraisal and design process for Sub-Saharan Africa: Introduction to Foresight Analysis

By Tim Sulser (IFPRI)

With several members of AGRODEP and governmental/university researchers from Nigeria, Uganda, and the Ivory Coast, in September 2016 I led a successful training workshop focused on using strategic foresight analyses to inform the review and development process of country-level National Agricultural Investment Plans (NAIPs).

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We first worked to develop a common understanding of the basic theory behind using scenarios and structural modeling to generate an evidence- and science-based perspective aimed at informing the agricultural/food policy process. Afterwards, we “dove into the deep end” of foresight analysis with a hands-on practical exercise to jointly develop our own scenarios for possible future trajectories of the agricultural economies of Sub-Saharan Africa. These scenarios focused on (1) the impact of violent conflict on the agricultural sector and (2) the potential impact of increased investment in agricultural research and development if more of Sub-Saharan Africa were to achieve the goals set out in the CAADP agreement.

This workshop was just a first step along the path to build national and regional level capacity for using strategic foresight studies to inform agricultural and food policy processes for the participants. We look forward to future interactions!

This workshop was supported by IFPRI’s West and Central Africa Office (WCAO) in partnership with the African Union Commission (AUC) and the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD) Planning and Coordinating Agency. The foresight work upon which this workshop was based was supported by funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the CGIAR Research Programs on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) and Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS) to GFSF.

 

Global Futures and Strategic Foresight participating in the Global Action Plan for Agricultural Diversity (GAPAD)

Global Futures and Strategic Foresight was invited to share their foresight perspective at the Global Action Plan on Agricultural Diversification (GAPAD) SDG2 Roundtable Forum in Nairobi, Kenya at the end of October 2016.  GAPAD (gapad.org) is an initiative by the Association of International Research and Development Centers for Agriculture (www.airca.org) to promote agricultural diversification as a tool to address many of the challenges we face today (and will be facing in the future) in food and agricultural systems at the local to global scale.

Global Futures and Strategic Foresight participating in the Global Action Plan for Agricultural Diversity (GAPAD)

Global Futures and Strategic Foresight participating in the Global Action Plan for Agricultural Diversity (GAPAD)

This Roundtable Forum focused specifically on how agricultural diversification could contribute to the UN Sustainable Development Goal 2 to end hunger, achieve food and nutrition security, and promote sustainable agriculture (SDG2; sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg2) and involved a broad representation of different experts, scientists, and stakeholders from the agricultural development community.  The successful workshop (Workshop Report from CABI.org) provided crucial material (Workshop Archive from AIRCA) for the GAPAD leaders to bring with them as they participated in the UNFCCC COP22 in Morocco in November (UNFCCC-COP22) and COP13 of UN Convention on Biological Diversity in Mexico in December (UNCBD-COP13).  This Forum also caught the attention of regional media outlets (KTN News Kenya; www.standardmedia.co.ke; www.pamacc.org).