Scenarios across space and time: Publications for the CCAFS Regional Scenarios Project

By Daniel Mason-D’Croz (IFPRI)

As a part of the CCAFS regional scenarios project, three new publications were recently released. All of this work was highly collaborative in nature and done using multiple models from different disciplines to allow for more holistic analysis of complex questions surrounding the potential trade-offs of economic and, in particular, agricultural development. IIASA and IFPRI led much of the modeling work, which also had significant contributions from the University of Kassel, UNEP-WCMC, FAO, and ECOWAS. Global Futures and Strategic Foresight was well-represented in this work, with two current members and one former member contributing as co-authors to all three publications (current: Daniel Mason-D’Croz and Shahnila Islam; former: Amanda Palazzo now at IIASA). The work leading up to these publications was highlighted in the CCAFS 2015 Annual Report.

The first article, Exploring future agricultural development and biodiversity in Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi: a spatially explicit scenario-based assessment, was published on May 21, 2016 in Regional Environmental Change. This article builds on the quantified scenario results of IFPRI’s IMPACT model to project the land use and land cover changes implied by the jointly developed “East African Scenarios.” The article then explores the implications of these changes in land use and the effects of agricultural development on biodiversity and ecosystem services. For more details on this work, please read a recent UNEP-WCMC blog.

Figure 1 Cartoon representation of East African scenarios by Mauvine Were (Vervoort et al. 2014)

Figure 1 Cartoon representation of East African scenarios by Mauvine Were (Vervoort et al. 2014)

>> Read more

Policy dialogue on: “Comprehensive assessment of pressures on water resources and its effect on the agricultural sector and food security in Tunisia”

by Aymen Frija (ICARDA)

On 10 and 11 May 2016, the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) organized a policy dialogue in Tunis to share with Tunisian policy makers and other national partners the preliminary scenarios and results of ICARDA’s research on the impact of pressure on water resources and its effect on food security in Tunisia. Participants included representatives from the National Research Institute for Rural Engineering, Water and Forestry (INRGREF), the National Institute of Agronomic Research of Tunisia (INRAT), the Ministry of Agriculture, Hydraulic Resources and Fisheries of Tunisia, Ecole Supérieure d’Agriculture de Mograne (ESAM) as well as ICARDA and the International Water Management Institute (IWMI).

This research is being conducted as part of the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) activities of ICARDA and IWMI, starting in 2015 through participatory design of scenarios and projections of water availability and demand in Tunisia and Jordan.

Projections of future water shortage and its impact on long-term food security has been conducted using two major tools: the “IMPACT” (International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade) model and the ASMOT (Agricultural Supply Model for Tunisia) model. The IMPACT model is a global model developed by IFPRI, while the ASMOT model is an agricultural supply model, specifically developed by ICARDA for the Tunisian context.
ICARDA Tunis workshop May 2016

>> Read more

GFSF Extended Team Meeting in Kenya, 17-19 May 2016

By Timothy Sulser (IFPRI)

The Global Futures & Strategic Foresight (GFSF) Program held its semi-annual extended team meeting from 17 to 19 May 2016, bringing team members from all 15 CGIAR Centers together in Naivasha, Kenya. In addition to reviewing work in progress, we discussed plans for future collaboration, joint publications, engagement with decision makers, links between foresight work in the various CGIAR Research Programs, and opportunities to inform discussions about prioritization in the CGIAR and its partners. Team members also took advantage of the opportunity to meet with staff and management at ILRI, ICRAF and other partners in Nairobi.

288 >> Read more

GFSF Extended Team Meeting in Kenya, 17-19 May 2016

By Timothy Sulser (IFPRI)

The Global Futures & Strategic Foresight (GFSF) Program held its semi-annual extended team meeting from 17 to 19 May 2016, bringing team members from all 15 CGIAR Centers together in Naivasha, Kenya. In addition to reviewing work in progress, we discussed plans for future collaboration, joint publications, engagement with decision makers, links between foresight work in the various CGIAR Research Programs, and opportunities to inform discussions about prioritization in the CGIAR and its partners. Team members also took advantage of the opportunity to meet with staff and management at ILRI, ICRAF and other partners in Nairobi.

288 >> Read more

Policy dialogue on: “Comprehensive assessment of pressures on water resources and its effect on the agricultural sector and food security in Tunisia”

by Aymen Frija (ICARDA)

On 10 and 11 May 2016, the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) organized a policy dialogue in Tunis to share with Tunisian policy makers and other national partners the preliminary scenarios and results of ICARDA’s research on the impact of pressure on water resources and its effect on food security in Tunisia. Participants included representatives from the National Research Institute for Rural Engineering, Water and Forestry (INRGREF), the National Institute of Agronomic Research of Tunisia (INRAT), the Ministry of Agriculture, Hydraulic Resources and Fisheries of Tunisia, Ecole Supérieure d’Agriculture de Mograne (ESAM) as well as ICARDA and the International Water Management Institute (IWMI).

This research is being conducted as part of the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) activities of ICARDA and IWMI, starting in 2015 through participatory design of scenarios and projections of water availability and demand in Tunisia and Jordan.

Projections of future water shortage and its impact on long-term food security has been conducted using two major tools: the “IMPACT” (International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade) model and the ASMOT (Agricultural Supply Model for Tunisia) model. The IMPACT model is a global model developed by IFPRI, while the ASMOT model is an agricultural supply model, specifically developed by ICARDA for the Tunisian context.
ICARDA Tunis workshop May 2016

>> Read more

LAC regional workshop on impact assessment for priority setting in agricultural research

By Athanasios Petsakos (CIP)

Thanasis-blog-photo-of-flipchart-20160422_122555-1024x576

A large number of public and private initiatives exist nowadays in Latin America which aim to promote innovation in the agricultural sector as a response to existing and future challenges on production systems and nutritional security. Some of these initiatives are financed by international credit institutions, like the World Bank, others by national governments, and others by private national or regional institutions. As a result, there is an increasing
interest from implementing organizations to efficiently allocate resources so that their research and development objectives generate information to all stakeholders and contribute to policy decision making at the national level.

To answer this interest, the International Potato Center (CIP), the National Institute of Agrarian Innovation (INIA) of Peru and theLearning Alliance of Peru, in collaboration with the International Center of Tropical Agriculture(CIAT) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) organized a workshop on the “Impact assessment for priority setting in agricultural research” to share methods, experiences and results from ex-ante and ex-post impact assessments of agricultural research relevant to the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region. The workshop, which was part of CIP’s implementation strategy of the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight project of the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) under Flagship 1, and the Innovative Value Chain Hubs and Platforms activity under Flagship 3 on Inclusive Value Chains and Efficient Trade, took place at CIP headquarters in the city of Lima, Peru in April 20-22, 2016.

During these three days, the campus of CIP became the field for the gathering of about fifty agricultural economists, social scientists and decision makers from agricultural research and development institutes in LAC, all with a common objective: to learn and share on how to set priorities and implement robust impact assessment in agricultural research. Participants covered a broad range of regional institutions: the National Agricultural Research Institutes of Peru (INIA), Colombia (CORPOICA) and Ecuador (INIAP), the Swiss Cooperation for Development in Bolivia (COSUDE) , the Peruvian Institute of Nutritional Research (IIN), the National Agronomic University of Peru in La Molina (UNALM), the Pontifical Catholic University of Peru (PUCP), the Peruvian Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Agriculture, and finally NGOs such as ASOCAM from Nicaragua and PRISMA in Peru.

Read more about the detailed objectives and results of the workshop here: http://cipotato.org/press-room/blogs/workshop-impact-assessment-priority-setting-agricultural-research/

LAC regional workshop on impact assessment for priority setting in agricultural research

By Athanasios Petsakos (CIP)

Thanasis-blog-photo-of-flipchart-20160422_122555-1024x576

A large number of public and private initiatives exist nowadays in Latin America which aim to promote innovation in the agricultural sector as a response to existing and future challenges on production systems and nutritional security. Some of these initiatives are financed by international credit institutions, like the World Bank, others by national governments, and others by private national or regional institutions. As a result, there is an increasing
interest from implementing organizations to efficiently allocate resources so that their research and development objectives generate information to all stakeholders and contribute to policy decision making at the national level.

To answer this interest, the International Potato Center (CIP), the National Institute of Agrarian Innovation (INIA) of Peru and theLearning Alliance of Peru, in collaboration with the International Center of Tropical Agriculture(CIAT) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) organized a workshop on the “Impact assessment for priority setting in agricultural research” to share methods, experiences and results from ex-ante and ex-post impact assessments of agricultural research relevant to the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region. The workshop, which was part of CIP’s implementation strategy of the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight project of the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) under Flagship 1, and the Innovative Value Chain Hubs and Platforms activity under Flagship 3 on Inclusive Value Chains and Efficient Trade, took place at CIP headquarters in the city of Lima, Peru in April 20-22, 2016. >> Read more

Engaging national policymakers through scenario analysis and economic modeling in the Philippines

By Daniel Mason-D’Croz (IFPRI) and Shahnila Islam (IFPRI)

In collaboration with the Philippine National Economic Development Agency (NEDA), the GFSF initiative of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) directed a 5 day short-course on scenario analysis and economic modeling with IFPRI’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT, https://www.ifpri.org/program/impact-model). This short-course, held 25-29 January 2016 in Angeles City, Philippines, was a part of ongoing, nationally-focused work in the Philippines that has already resulted in a forthcoming book and several joint NEDA-IFPRI policy notes (Policy Note 1 and Policy Note 2). NEDA invited 30+ regional staff to attend with the objective to familiarize them with the joint research program and build regional capacity in the methodologies used to complete this joint work.

Pic1

Figure 1- Participants clustering factors of change while developing scenarios in the Philippines (picture by Shahnila Islam)

>> Read more

Exploring Indonesian aquaculture futures: new report from WorldFish

Aquaculture is the fastest-growing food production sector globally, with production projected to double within the next 15–20 years. Future growth of aquaculture is essential to providing sustainable supplies of fish in national, regional and global fish food systems; creating jobs; and maintaining fish at affordable levels for resource-poor consumers. To ensure that the anticipated growth of aquaculture remains both economically and ecologically sustainable, we need to better understand the likely patterns of growth, as well as the opportunities and challenges that these trends present. This knowledge will enable us to better prioritize investments that will help ensure the sustainable development of the sector.

In Indonesia, WorldFish and partners have applied a unique methodology to evaluate growth trajectories for aquaculture under various scenarios, as well as the opportunities and challenges these represent. See the full post here.

Building capacity and a forum for collaboration

by Kindie Tesfaye (CIMMYT), Evgeniya Anisimova (PIM)

group-work-300x169As part of its work under PIM (Flagship 1) and the Global Futures & Strategic Foresight (GFSF) project, the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) organized a five-day training workshop titled “Crop and Bioeconomic Modeling under Uncertain Climate”. The training took place on 7-11 December 2015 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

The workshop brought together representatives of Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Eastern and Central Africa (ASARECA) and West and Central Africa Council for Agricultural Research and Development (CORAF), as well as researchers from agricultural research institutes and universities from Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Niger, Senegal, Nigeria, and Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Participants were trained to apply crop and bioeconomic models allowing to estimate biophysical and economic impacts of climate variability and change and to assess different adaptation options. The tools they worked with included the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT), the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), and Gtree (GAMS). The training involved plenary discussions, group work, and individual hands-on exercises.

This workshop was a follow up of a similar training conducted in November 2014 in Addis Ababa. A third training is planned for 2016. The series is designed to contribute to building of a core regional group of researchers who appreciate and use crop and bioeconomic models in addressing the impacts of climate change in Africa, and to create a forum for experience sharing and collaboration.

>> Read more