The Global Futures & Strategic Foresight (GFSF) project is focused on using quantitative foresight analysis to inform policy decisions. The methods and tools useful in foresight analysis are many and varied. In addition, depending on the specifics of any particular study, different combinations of methods and tools may be necessary.
The methods and tools used in this project are not exhaustive of the entire spectrum of those available, but have proven to serve their respective roles well with respect to the system of interrelated quantitative models.
Publications detail the specifics of methods and tools used in each particular analysis, but the following are several tools common to most of the GFSF analyses. Please see the documentation for each of these tools on their respective websites:
- IMPACT (International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade) is a detailed multimarket model focused on the agricultural sector (www.ifpri.org/program/impact-model)
- Global hydrology and water management are represented through a linked set of models: (1) the IMPACT global hydrology model (IGHM), (2) the IMPACT water basin simulation model (IWSM), and (3) the IMPACT crop water allocation and stress model (ICWASM). These are documented along with the IMPACT model (www.ifpri.org/program/impact-model)
- DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) is a suite of crop simulation models that simulates crop growth, development, and yield as a function of soil-plant-atmosphere dynamics. (www.dssat.net)
- Other crop simulation models used or in development to be used include APSIM (www.apsim.info), EPIC (epicapex.tamu.edu/epic), and LPJmL (www.pik-potsdam.de/research/projects/activities/biosphere-water-modelling/lpjml)
- SPAM (Spatial Production Allocation Model) provides disaggregated estimates of crop distribution across the globe (mapspam.info).
- GLOBE is a general equilibrium model of the global economy that includes details across all major sectors (www.cgemod.org.uk/globe.html). The linkages with this complementary tool is under development.
- We use climate data from available from Global Circulation Models (GCMs), also known as Earth System Models (ESMs) collected and managed by the ISI-MIP project (www.isi-mip.org).